Search results for deutsche

Did China rescue Deutsche Bank?

As we approached the end of September and entered October, the imminent demise of Deutsche Bank was on the lips of many insiders and the MSM alike. Then everything went quiet. And nobody was even commenting on the silence. It intrigued me. Even Zero Hedge went silent at the end of October, which raises who really runs it. Even Parkes’ own website doesn’t carry the story.

Then tonight I was listening to Simon Parkes, who said that the Chinese had purchased 25% of Deutsche Bank. So, I went looking. The only evidence this might have happened that I could find is this article from October 9, 2016, raising the possibility that China could take this step.

And the only thing I can say is SOMETHING has happened to save its skin, at least in the short term.

But the silence is deafening.

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

Deutsche Bank: Europe’s Ticking Time Bomb

Once again, James Corbett calls it like it is:

You have no doubt heard by now about the precarious situation that Deutsche Bank finds itself in, including the impending US government fine for selling faulty mortgage-backed securities in the run up to the financial crisis. The lamestream media is busy running stories about German bailout rumors, and bank’s uncanny ability to not quite die…yet. But in case anyone is tempted to draw comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis, rest assured that the failure of Deutsche Bank would be no “Lehman Bros. moment.” It would be incomparably worse.

Deutsche Bank is not just one of the largest banking and financial services companies in the world (although it is that). It is also one of the most inter-connected banks in the world. As the IMF helpfully pointed out earlier this year:

“Deutsche Bank is also a major source of systemic risk in the global financial system. The net contribution to global systemic risk is captured by the difference between the outward spillover to the system from the bank and the inward spillover to the bank from the system based on forecast error variance decomposition. Deutsche Bank appears to the most important net contributor to systemic risks in the global banking system, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. Moreover, Deutsche Bank appears to be a key source of outward spillovers to all other G-SIBs as measured by bilateral linkages.”…

…Well, in 2013 its notional derivative exposure was 55.6 trillion euros. Let’s put that in perspective with a graphic from ZeroHedge comparing DB’s derivative exposure to the Gross Domestic Product of Germany.

Does that look frightening? Well, don’t worry. Deutsche’s derivative black hole has been pared back to a much more modest 46 trillion or so euros, a mere 15 times German GDP.

Does that make you feel any better? I didn’t think so.

End of quote.

It’s not if with Deutsche. It’s when.

And the counterparties began to pull their cash out of Deutsche last week.

Not long to go when that starts.

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

 

This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next

Anybody who reads my posts will know I’ve been talking about the impending demise of Deutsche Bank for several months.

I have also been intrigued to watch its demise inexorably align with the Shemitah of this Jubilee year – this weekend. It’s been like watching the death throes of a wild beast; except its thrashing tail could bring down the entire global financial system. I don’t use these words lightly. And you might have seen its parlous state make the MSM in the last 24 hours. Here’s the latest:

It is not solvency, or the lack of capital – a vague, synthetic, and usually quite arbitrary concept, determined by regulators – that kills a bank; it is – as Dick Fuld will tell anyone who bothers to listen – the loss of (access to) liquidity: cold, hard, fungible (something Jon Corzine knew all too well when he commingled and was caught) cash, that pushes a bank into its grave, usually quite rapidly: recall that it took Lehman just a few days for its stock to plunge from the high double digits to zero.

It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock crashing to new all time lows earlier today: after all, the investing world already knew for nearly two weeks that its capitalization is insufficient. As we reported earlier this week, it was a report by Citigroup, among many other, that found how badly undercapitalized the German lender is, noting that DB’s “leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018” and calculated that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 – far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ – and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.

When Citi’s note exposing DB’s undercapitalization came out, it had precisely zero impact on the price of DB stock. Why? Because as we said above, capitalization – and solvency – tends to be a largely worthless, pro-forma concept. However, when Bloomberg reported today that select funds have withdrawn “some excess cash and positions held at the lender” the stock immediately plunged: the reason is that this had everything to do with not only DB’s suddenly crashing liquidity, but the pernicious feedback loop, where once a source of liquidity leaves, the departure tends to spook other such sources, leading to an outward bound liquidity cascade. Again: just ask Lehman (and AIG) for the details.

Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly the same amount as DB’s gross notional derivative exposure) question: since DB is suddenly experiencing a sharp “liquidity event”, how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to as of this moment, to offset this event? The answer would allow us to calculate how long DB may have in a worst case scenario if we knew the rate of liquidity outflow.

For the answer, we go to a just released note by Goldman Sachs, which admits that it is now facing “crisis” questions from clients, among which “can a large European bank face a liquidity event” to wit”

Deutsche Bank stands at the center of the European financial system – it is a major counterpart of all relevant European banks, and broader. Recent reports of potential litigation hits have compounded capital concerns, and raised the overall level of market anxiety. “Crisis” questions are being asked: “is there risk of a financial crisis re-run” and “can a large European bank face a liquidity event”?

So what is the answer: how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to? The answer is two fold, with the first part focusing on central bank, in this case ECB, backstops in both $ and €.

End of quote.

In line with that Chinese proverb; we live in interesting times.

In the light of all of this, you might want to watch Jim Rickards and Egon von Greyerz discuss 10000 gold.

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

Deutsche Bank Refuses Delivery Of Physical Gold Upon Demand

I present this Zero Hedge article in full:

While the trading world was focused on the latest news involving Deutsche Bank, namely that the troubled German bank had been contemplating a merger with Germany’s other mega-bank, Commerzbank as part of a strategy to sell all or part of a key business to speed up its flagging overhaul, a more troubling report emerged in a German gold analysis website, according to which Deutsche Bank was unable to satisfy a gold delivery request when asked to do so by a client of Germany’s Xetra-Gold service.

But first, what is Xetra-Gold?

According to its website, the publicly traded company “provides investors with an efficient instrument to participate in the performance of the gold market. Xetra-Gold’s combination of features – cost-efficient trading and the right for physical delivery of gold – makes it an attractive product.”

Among its highlights, Xetra-Gold lists the following:

Cost-efficient trading: No mark-up fee, no transportation or insurance costs such as those incurred when purchasing physical gold. Only the standard transaction fees that are charged for on-exchange securities trading are payable at the time of acquisition. The spreads that apply to purchase and sale correspond to the standard conditions on the global market and are considerably lower than those for traditional gold-based financial products. Furthermore, management or administration fees relating to Xetra-Gold are not incurred. The investor pays the amount of custody fees which he/she has agreed upon with the depository bank.

Physically backed: The issuer uses the proceeds from the issue of Xetra-Gold to purchase gold. The physical gold is held in custody for the issuer in the Frankfurt vaults of Clearstream Banking AG, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG. In order to facilitate the delivery of physical gold, the issuer holds a further limited amount of gold on an unallocated weight account with Umicore AG & Co. KG.

Transparent:  Xetra-Gold tracks the price of gold on a virtually 1:1 basis, and is always up to date.

Tradeable in euros per gram: While in the past, gold was mainly denominated in US dollars per troy ounce, you trade Xetra-Gold in euros per gram.

Stable/Constant holdings: The investor’s right to receive delivery of the certificated amount of gold is not reduced by management costs or other fees, unlike other investments in gold. 1,000 units of Xetra-Gold will still represent a kilogram of gold in 30 years’ time.

The company makes the following promise:

Redemption for gold: Investors always have the possibility of demanding delivery of the securitised amount of gold per bearer note against the issuer. If the investor is not able to exercise this right due to legal restrictions effective for him/her, he/she can demand the cashing of Xetra-Gold from the issuer. In this case, a settlement fee of EUR 0.02 per Xetra-Gold bond will be charged.

Delivery of gold: If an investor asserts his/her right to the delivery of the certificated volume of gold from the issuer, the gold will be transported to the respective point of delivery by Umicore AG & Co. KG, which is responsible for all physical delivery processes. The issuer will also have delivery rights of gold from Umicore AG & Co. KG, as the gold leaf debtor. Investors can find information on delivery and the alternative payment claims that are relevant for investment and insurance companies in the PDF document entitled ‘Information on the process for exercising Xetra-Gold’.

And yes, Deutsche Bank is involved, as the fund’s Designated Sponsor.

In other words, Xetra-Gold is an Exchange-Traded Commodity which differentiates itself by “representing that every gram of gold purchase electronically is backed by the same amount of physical gold” and its principal bank is none other than Deutsche Bank.

And with Germans recently rushing to buy safes or find sound money alternatives in a country where the interest rate is negative, the ETC, it is not surprising that the population has flocked to its offering.

According to recent report by LeapRate, the gold held in custody by Deutsche Borse Commodities for the purpose of physically backing the Xetra-Gold bond has risen to a new record high of 90.67 tons, an increase of more than 50% since the beginning of the year. “For each Xetra-Gold bond, exactly one gram of gold is deposited in the central vaults for German securities in Frankfurt” the report parrots the company’s website.

Among all exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) tradable on Xetra, Xetra-Gold is by far the most successful in terms of turnover. During the first seven months of the year, order book turnover on Xetra stood at approximately €1.5 billion. The assets managed by Xetra-Gold currently amount to €3.5 billion.

In September 2015, the German Federal Fiscal Court (Bundesfinanzhof) had ruled that after a minimum holding period, any profits from the sale or redemption of Xetra-Gold are not subject to the capital gains tax. From a fiscal point of view, the purchase, redemption or sale are thus to be treated equal to a direct purchase or sale of physical gold, such as in bullions or coins.

But what is most notable, is that, as noted above, Xetra-Gold investors are entitled to the delivery of the certified amount of physical gold at any time, and adds that “since the introduction of Xetra-Gold in 2007, investors have exercised this right 900 times, with a total of 4.5 tons of gold delivered.

However, something appears to have changed.

As Oliver Baron reports, those who ask for gold delivery at this moment, “could encounter difficulties.” The reason is that according to Baron, a reader of GodmodeTrader “sought physical delivery of his holdings of Xetra-Gold. For this he approached, as instructed by the German Borse document, his principal bank, Deutsche Bank.”

At that point then he encountered a big surprise: the Deutsche Bank account executive informed the investor that “the service”, is no longer offered, namely exercising physical delivery at Xetra-Gold, for “reasons of business policy” and therefore the order form provided by Clearstream Banking AG for exercising Xetra-gold is no longer available.

Baron writes that since Deutsche Bank is no longer serving the physical exercising of delivery request of Xetra-Gold is remarkable, as Deutsche Bank is the “designated sponsor” as well as fiscal, principal and redemption agent of Xetra-Gold according to its prospectus, and as the explainer of how to exercise physical delivery also reveals. Even if one is a customer of another bank, Xetra-Gold should – at least on paper- guarantee delivery by way of Deutsche Bank, as the Deutsche Borse Commodities GmbH explains in its “process description for exercising units

Step-by-step description of exercise

Together with a representative of his principal bank, the investor creates the transaction and sends it to the principal bank’s custodian with the relevant process data described above. The custodian in turn instructs its custodian, stipulating all process-relevant data, until a bank which is a customer of Clearstream Banking is authorised.

The customer may use the attached exercise form to instruct the designated sponsor (here Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt) to deliver a specified number of gold bars to the point of delivery. The process is similar to that for the delivery of physical certificates.

The customer should send the original exercise form to the following address:

 

Deutsche Bank AG
“Ausübung Xetra-Gold” CIB-Global Banking
Trust & Securities Services
Grosse Gallusstrasse 10 – 14
60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

 

To transfer the required amount of Xetra-Gold units to the blocked account of Deutsche Börse Commodities, the customer should also place an FoP instruction via CASCADE or File Transfer/SWIFT.

Delivery will be initiated if Deutsche Bank receives the securities and the application form by 10:00 CET. As a rule it takes one to two weeks to deliver retail gold bars and four days for London Good Delivery gold bars from date of ordering. As soon as the delivered gold arrives at the point of delivery, the Xetra-Gold® units are removed and recovered from the “Ausübungskonto DBCo” (DBCo exercise account).

Due to the provisions of the Money Laundering Act (Geldwäschegesetz) only the branch of a bank may be used as point of delivery. Investors expecting a large delivery of gold should contact their principal bank to discuss the transfer of the gold to the point of delivery.

The article goes on to note that it was not clear whether the exercise and physical delivery at other banks is actually still possible. Baron said that Deutsche Borse Commodities advised to transfer the Xetra-Gold shares in a cooperative/Raiffeisenbank since physical delivery is allegedly still possible here. The Deutsche Borse also announced that it is currently working on the “possibility of delivery regardless of bank branch.” However, since this process was not described in the prospectus of Xetra-Gold, it would have to be legally tested, which could take considerable time.

The article’s conclusion: anyone who wants to easily convert their Xetra-Gold holdings into physical gold – at least for clients of Deutsche Bank – can do so only by selling their shares, and then buying gold coins or bars directly elsewhere. Which leads the author to the logical question: what is the worth of the Xetra-Gold service, which certifies the right to redeem physical gold, if said delivery is no longer possible?

In other words, what was supposedly an ETC which promised physical delivery upon demand, is nothing more than yet another “paper only” play.

We, on the other hand, have a more focused question: is the inability to deliver physical gold an incipient issue with Xetra-Gold, or with the company’s “designated sponor” Deutsche Bank, and if the latter is suddenly unable to satisfy even the smallest of delivery requests by retail clients, just how unprecedented is the global physical gold shortage?

End of quote.

Is this the thin end of a very large wedge?

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

Deutsche Bank CEO Warns Of “Fatal Consequences” For Savers

I find this Zero Hedge article of great interest:

So, in what may have been DB’s loudest cry for help against the ECB’s unwavering commitment to rock-bottom interest rates, the bank’s CEO, John Cryan, warned in a guest commentary ahead of the Handelsblatt Banking Summit titled, appropriately enough “Banks in Upheaval”, to be held in Frankfurt on August 31 and September 1, that “monetary policy is now running counter to the aims of strengthening the economy and making the European banking system safer.

However, his most striking warning was not aimed at Mario Draghi, but at Germany itself – and ostensibly his own clients – implicitly suggesting that if Deutsche Bank goes down it is taking everyone down with it, when, as cited by Bloomberg, he warned of “fatal consequences” for savers and pension plans while “companies refrain from investments due to ongoing uncertainty and demand less loans.”

End of quote.

Now, none of this is new. The impact of Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRP) on creditors is self-evident.

But what this article triggered for me was the realisation that the “main street” banks’ traditional business of seeking deposits from creditors and lending it out (forgetting fractional reserve lending for the moment) is being dismantled by ZIRP. It means they are even more dependent upon the washing machine derivatives game for their profits. And when the plug gets pulled on the washing machine…

So, is part of the ZIRP plan to effectively destroy the main street banks, again as part of the move to a new global “lifesaving” currency?

Ohhh… and there is yet another update in the article of the inexorable decline of the Deutsche bank share price as it swirls around the toilet bowl…

I wonder if it’ll hold together until the Shemitah date of October 2nd? If you use the Lehman Brothers graph is a predictor, it’s almost bang on target.

The fallout of Deutsche Bank’s failure will be hard to imagine and impossible to contain.

We do, indeed, live in interesting times…

 

Richard

 

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

 

Diving Into Deutsche Bank’s “Passion To Perform” Balance Sheet

Deutsche Bank shares have collapsed to lows deep under crisis lows and collapse of Lehman in the Great Financial Crisis…

What’s going on?

An investigation of Deutsche Bank’s “Passion to Perform” balance sheet provides the clues.

The above clip from Deutsche Bank’s First Quarter 2016 Statement.

Details in red from page 61 (PDF page 63) of the 126 page report.

Key Liabilities

  • €559 billion deposits
  • €562 billion negative derivatives
  • €151 billion long term debt

World’s Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

Zero Hedge commented on the World’s Most Systemically Dangerous Bank.

Here’s the key chart.

Deutsche Bank Share Price

What Went Wrong?

Deutsche Bank’s price to book value is 0.251.

Effectively the market suggests Deutsche Bank is worth 75% less than book value. Why?

  1. Is it derivatives?
  2. Are bank assets over-inflated?
  3. Other assets prices inflated?
  4. Liabilities understated?
  5. What about Brexit?

Brexit is the easiest explanation to throw out. Share prices started collapsing a second time starting at the beginning of 2014.

The bank has always been heavy in derivatives. Although recent activity may have led to losses or more scrutiny, it’s relatively easily to discard that as the primary answer.

Banking Sector Malaise

Instead of pondering the obvious problems, what about other things?

  1. Targe2 imbalances starting to matter
  2. Italian banking woes starting to matter
  3. Rising chance that Eurosceptic leaders take control of Italy.
  4. What if Eurozone intrabank balances are in question?

My best guess is that Deutsche Bank share prices reflect all of the above but something in the second set of reasons, or something we still do not fully understand is the primary reason behind the collapse.

End of quote.

I have nothing to add.

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

“Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System”: IMF

From Zero Hedge:

Over three years ago we wrote “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” in which we introduced a bank few until then had imagined was the riskiest in the world.

As we explained then “the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank. The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000….  Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.”

So here we are three years later, when not only did Deutsche Bank just flunk the Fed’s stress test for the second year in a row, but moments ago in a far more damning analysis, none other than the IMF disclosed that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system, explicitly stating that the German bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks.”

Yes, the same bank whose stock price hit a record low just two days ago.

End of quote, though the rest of the article is worth reading.

Watching Deutsche Bank over the last few years has been like watching a train wreck unfolding in slow motion. It’s risk appetite on many levels has meant that it’s failure was only a matter of timing.

And let’s not forget who the IMF is. Like the World Bank, the BIS and others, they are tools of the Jewish global banking elite, posturing as good guys when that’s the last thing they are.

And, also, let’s remember the Economist – a recognised Rothschild mouthpiece and used to foretell future events – had a cover a couple of years ago predicting a new global currency in 2018. I’d say they’re right on track.

We don’t have long to change the rules on them – or have events unfold in our world that achieve that end. I see a couple of candidates.

Richard

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

Deutsche Bank Tumbles Near Record Lows As Yield Curve Crashes

Despite major jawboning and bond-buying by The ECB, Deutsche Bank’s “see it’s not Lehman after all” dead-cat-bounce has officially died as the giant German bank’s stock collapses back near record lows.

With Europe’s bond curve crushed (and 10Y Bunds trading 1.1bps today), it’s beginning to look a lot like Lehman again…

End of quote.

We know where the Lehman scenario led us; the 2008 GFC.

 

Richard

 

Check out the extraordinary new, life-changing technology at www.magravsplasmaproducts.com

“Let Me Explain What Happens Next…” – A Reader Sums It All Up Very Ominously

I quote this article from Zero Hedge:

A reader recently wrote me a long letter on how he feels about all this ‘Plandemic’ stuff.  I thought it would be good to share it as there is so much in it which rings bells of truth for me…[emphasis ours]

I’ve just woken up after reading ZeroHedge late into the night. I awoke with the conviction that Covid is being used to roll out a police state:

They know it’s not deadly, it’s no longer spreading and Lockdown is killing off the few small businesses which remain viable. Yet Boris now insists upon banning the assembly of more than 6 people. He has recalled some petty bureaucrats to act as street enforcers and requested people become snitches who report on their neighbours for any breaches of these guidelines. This automatically means we must now all fear our neighbours, or strangers who take our car number. How better to destroy the mutual trust upon which society is built?

Just think if one were to refuse to bend the knee.  In Australia and Spain the police have been caught using excessive force against those not wearing masks. Intimidating isn’t it? I’m thinking I may have to start using one. Yet the science is clear – masks offer no protection.

So we know these new restrictions are not being driven by the authority’s concern for our health. And what is the difference between where we are now and making it normal for the police to come to your door and arrest you for a breach of their protocols? What is the difference between where we are now and an oppressive police state?

There is only one difference between now and full-on state oppression:  A change in the Zeitgeist.

They need an event that will change the mood of the people – an event or a series of events that make us afraid of ‘them’. A psychological shock that will give the police the conviction that things are so bad ‘a little force is necessary’ to ensure things don’t get out of control. And then, magically, the current ‘temporary restrictions’ become state oppression. What could that game changer be?Imagine this November: The US has 100 cities descending into what looks like the start of civil war as patriots turn out to stop Antifa burning down Middle America. Kamala Harris is calling for the army to ‘evict’ Trump because he refuses to leave the White House on the grounds that he won the popular vote while the mail-in ballots were fraudulent.

For the Brits, Brexit has caused problems at the ports – among other things some foodstuffs are not getting through. Germany’s economy has cratered after the EU stopped them exporting cars to the UK (Trumps already tariffed them), and the EU’s bank has insisted Germany let the 500 non-viable, medium sized biz (currently kept alive with emergency funding) go bankrupt.

Deutsche Bank collapses and this initiates a global banking crisis. Europe has no way of saving its banks as all the European economies are so damaged and 20% of workers have already been laid off.  It’s a Greek style banking crisis on steroids. People are pulling out cash in the expectation of daily cash limits. Physical gold will have already disappeared from the market place. So any biz with money in the bank is frantically buying bitcoin in an attempt to avoid their working capital being ‘bailed in’.

The banks will have already pulled the plug on their most vulnerable customers – the airlines – so virtually no planes are flying. Dover is jammed up with lorries lining the approach roads. So no one can leave Blighty.  And if you did, the emergency measures intended to pre-empt Covid’s Second Wave require you to be kept in quarantine at your destination. Locked down in a hotel, under military guard (as in NZ), for 4 weeks at your own expense and with frequent testing to ensure you are not a carrier. With full bio-metric data being collected and filed on an EU wide register. In practice this means that travel becomes so fraught that escape from your homeland is just about impossible.

You get the gist?  November could be the end of world as we know it’ (TEOTWAWKI).  But my point is this: Why are we looking at such a catastrophe if their goal is not a police state? No one destroys the globe’s economy and creates the conditions for a 10 year Greater Depression by accident. This has to be a planned, intentional destruction of much of global civilization.

The evidence is overwhelming. This civilization has been purposefully destroyed. Right now we’re in an unreal time (like the beautiful summer just before WW1’s carnage).  It’s like Wiley E Coyote who has gone over the cliff, is still running but not yet started to fall. But when we fall, how will people react as they realize that they will never work again, never pay off the mortgage, never collect their pensions?  If we have state oppression and economic chaos by Christmas then what will be the next stage of their takeover?

The world’s economy is already doomed. The already broken supply chains ensure it can only get worse.  Once the derivative market goes, and banks can no longer fund the credit lines crucial for importers and exporters, then trade will collapse and thus food supplies cease.

It would seem to be inevitable that America is going to see more conflict as the Dems & Soros show no signs of wishing to abort their colour revolution. Maybe in 2021, maybe a year or two later, but there will come a time when a credit shortage leads to deflation. So the banks will print more and then rain down helicopter money which will lead to inflation. And then the currencies will start collapsing. Many people understand that this is inevitable. But what happens when people come to accept that money isn’t go to be worth the paper it’s printed on?  And thus keeping a job may not be worth the danger of leaving your house or of leaving safety.

I summarise one of last night’s articles:

“the beasts of burden don’t rebel, they just no longer show up. Not showing up can take a number of forms: early retirement, sick leave, a demand to work halftime, a workers’ compensation stress leave, and of course, resignation and quitting as in: “take this job and shove it”.  They slip noiselessly into the cracks and crevasses and once they’re gone, there’s nobody left to replace them.”

“As the Vital Few 4% realize the system no longer works for them and opt out, this will have an out-sized effect on the 64%, most likely urban dwellers, highly dependent on increasingly brittle, fragile services that depend on the Vital Few for their functionality. Think of London’s tube train drivers phoning in sick – ideology won’t matter.

Those dropping out may be Conservative or Progressive or they may have lost interest entirely in politics and all the other circuses that serve to distract the populace from the crises dissolving the glue that held the system together. “So I won’t get rich, that dream died a long time ago.”  What I’m interested in now is getting my life back and getting the heck out of Dodge as things fall apart.”

The rich will escape to their holiday cottages. The poor will riot – but what then?  As the social facade cracks, and the economic system breaks, there is neither a society nor an economy to fall back on. By Christmas it will be obvious that normality has gone for ever.

So what will ‘they’ do with millions of unemployed, frightened people?  If  ‘they’ leave the internet on then the people will start to organize – first politically – but when that doesn’t work, riots and then finally revolution. Turn it off and they will riot without being organized. Turn off phones and all hell will break out. Don’t turn them off and the kids will organize against the state – trash cars or burn down the local police station.  Have you noticed how some police stations look like forts?

My point is that it’s very hard not to see ‘events’ hitting the fan this November. And once they do it’s very hard to see life ever going back to stability, let alone ‘normality’. Rather, there will be an overwhelming need to control {oppress} the population before they take over the state. But what do you do with millions of unemployed in a failed economy who are doomed to losing their currency, long term poverty and probably food shortages. There is only one thing ‘they’ can do. Kill them.

Ideally, for the elite, Covid’s Second Wave will have a higher morbidity rate. Enough to steadily reduce the population but not so fast they can’t be buried in plague pits. It would have to be bad enough to justify a harsh Lockdown but it’s difficult to see that being feasible without giving the people electricity, internet & food and the money to pay for it. And even then it’s only a temporary fix as Lockdown can’t last for ever. Permanent Lockdown would soon destroy the currency which will mean no electricity or food.

Maybe Covid-19 v1.0 was supposed to kill off more people but it failed. Or maybe it worked as intended – they didn’t want to risk killing off too many in case the Lockdown failed and we revolted. But I don’t see they have much choice now. ‘The Fourth Turning’ will be turbulent until 2025 and things won’t really be resolved until 2030. How are they going to manage us for another 10 years? How will they control us? Feed us?

They can start a war but no one is going to turn up. Fight a war for the elite? Use a gun to kill people you don’t know?  That’s not going to happen. And they need to preserve the professional soldiers to ‘maintain the peace’ in the cities. So what options do they have but to release a more potent bio-weapon – nuclear war perhaps?

One of the scary things about working through ‘their’ options is that they don’t have many. Things have gone too far – they’ve destroyed the world’s economy. The system is stuffed. What are ‘they’ going to do with 2bn unemployed people. Even if there is enough food but the US has a developing dust bowl, Africa’s suffered huge locust devastation, and China’s preparing for food shortages. How do unemployed people pay for it?  Who can give them money without destroying the currency or if the currency is already destroyed?

A simple thing like the current fall in the number of sunspots is indicating an immediate future of colder weather and lower crop yields. Add into that, fuel shortages for agricultural machinery, lack of fertilizer – Nitrogen is made by burning lots of oil, lack of supply lines, and loss of credit lines. With people in Lockdown ‘they’ would be relying on a planned economy (not a free market) which is going to be inefficient. A planned economy is completely incapable of ensuring a stable food supply when there are shortages and the world is chaotic.

It’s not even feeding our cities that will be prime problem. It will be feeding the cities in Mexico and North Africa. They can’t cope with food price inflation. But they won’t starve – they’ll flood into the USA or cross the Mediterranean – lucky us!  And what will Erdogan in Turkey do to feed his people – nothing good!  If there are real food shortages then note that there are huge Muslim populations in France & Sweden, Turks and refugees in Germany, Pakistani ghettos in UK and plenty more where they all came from.

I’m feeling concerned. The problem is I can’t see Brexit solving our problems. Sure, it may not exacerbate them as much as I fear. November’s events may not trigger us into a state of oppression. But do you see my point?  Things have got so bad, they can only get worse. November is bound to see some changes and they may well trigger a change in the Zeitgeist, though how significant depends on ‘events, dear boy, events’.

But whatever happens I think it’s virtually guaranteed that both the economy and society will keep on deteriorating.

Do you think I’m right?

Will November be the tipping point?

Is there any way back?

Will there be anything to go ‘back’ to?

Or else, is it a case of:  “we’re doomed, I tell ya, doomed”.  And what happens when more people work out that the elites have created a situation where their only option is to rapidly reduce the population! Famine will lead to uncontrollable social conflict, perhaps with Muslims massacring whites in general or the local Jewish populations in particular. I think that much conflict could see ‘them‘ lose control.

Thus it’s hard to see any other viable method than a bio-weapon. Agenda 21 could be implemented on schedule. And if not, the solution will need to be applied within a few years, certainly before 2025.  Timing may depend on vaccine production as there will have to be at least enough vaccine for essential workers, the police, the military and the management class if the elite are to retain control.

End of quote.

Someone else just woke up.

Also, the following article from The Age newspaper in Melbourne of October 24, 2014, was sent to me today (thank you, Hedy):

Deadly flu pandemic could shut down Melbourne

A deadly pandemic could shut down Melbourne as we know it.

Public transport could be terminated, AFL games cancelled and the casino, schools and office towers forced to close.

It has been predicted that the first wave of a pandemic could cause 10,000 deaths in Victoria. But families and friends may not be able to publicly mourn lost loved ones, because funeral services could be stopped as part of policy of “social distancing”.

While Ebola is currently the focus of public fear – with a doctor in New York testing positive for Ebola on Friday – an influenza pandemic is considered far more likely to cause mass deaths and panic in Melbourne.

It is a scenario that has been seriously considered and prepared for by all levels of government.

Melbourne City Council has its own detailed Influenza Pandemic Action Plan. Obtained by The Age using freedom-of-information laws, the document details the likely location of six “Mass Vaccination Centres”.

Outbreaks of influenza – often spread through coughing and sneezing – occur yearly during colder months in Australia. Pandemics can begin when a highly infectious new strain emerges for which humans have little or no immunity.

Australian National University Professor of Infectious Diseases, Peter Collignon, said there was a concern Australia could again see an influenza pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, which claimed about 10,000 Australian lives and caused more deaths worldwide than the First World War.

He said that every year there was a less than 1 per cent chance of experiencing a similar event. “However things can change, so we need to be vigilant,” he said.

Melbourne City Council’s pandemic plan was developed in 2008 in response to the H5N1 avian flu and considers a range of impacts of a deadly flu on Melbourne.

The plan – currently under review – says businesses should prepare for up to 50 per cent of their staff to be absent, as workers fall ill or stay at home to care for the infected.

At first the most vulnerable are expected to include homeless people and single-parent families. But as the pandemic takes hold new potential victims could emerge.

There could be orphaned children, the so-called “worried well” and the newly unemployed who have lost their jobs as a result of a pandemic-prompted economic downturn.

Mass vaccination centres could be set up across the city, with likely locations including Melbourne Town Hall, Carlton Baths, North Melbourne Town Hall and Kensington YMCA. Those who go to the centres will have to bring their Medicare card, birth certificates or other documents to prove they are in the “priority group” for vaccination.

Also likely to be part of the front-line pandemic response is the funeral industry, which could use their vehicles to transport bodies, helping to free up ambulances for the living.

Australian Funeral Directors Association president Darren Eddy said mortuary workers already used protective equipment, including goggles, when handling a body. But a pandemic could change the public face of the business.

Due to restrictions on large gatherings, Mr Eddy said funeral directors may have to videotape services so friends of the deceased can watch the event online on home computers.

Cancelling big events could be appropriate in a pandemic, Professor Collignon said. He said, however, that authorities should consider not only the virus’ severity, but also its likelihood of spreading.

While strains of the bird flu had a mortality rate of up to 40 per cent, because it did not spread easily, there would be no need to cancel a football match, he said.

A Melbourne City Council spokeswoman said in the event of a major disease or influenza outbreak, the council would take direction from the state government. In an “unlikely” local case of Ebola, Victoria’s health department said the primary response would come from health services and clinicians.

End of quote.

Coincidence? I’ll let you decide.

Richard

HEADS UP: Banks Are Falling Out by Lynette Zang

In my opinion, the issue of a global financial reset is when, not if.
I keep a close eye on what Lynette Zang has to say, and she flagged some key indicators in her video today.
This smart money index shows insider selling like we saw in 2000 and 2008, the last two times the wheels began to come off the financial cart.
The Strategically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) have decoupled from the S&P 500, a sign they are under stress.
Deutsche Bank is again trading at new lows  breaking the low of late 2016, before Chinese money kept them alive. Will they be allowed to fail this time? When Deutsche goes, the entire financial system will go with them.
Interestingly, Bix Weir was also discussing the impending failure of Deutsche Bank today.
We live in interesting times…
Richard
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