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July 2024



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We saw the DOW fall by 326 points today to 15,373, a fall of some 2%. This is a fall of 1,203 from the high of 16,576 on December 30, 2013, a fall of some 7.25%. It has taken out some support levels on the way, notably 15,740. In my view, if the market breaks the double bottom of 14,776, then it may fall quite some distance. A target of 7,687 comes to mind. Heard much about this fall in the mainstream press? I haven’t. These things happen when “Joe Average” is not looking.

As a friend of mine who has been invested in gold and cash for a couple of years shared with me recently, one of the pundits he watches commented that being in the stockmarket last year was like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller (thanks, John). I like the image.

I am not saying I know where this is going. I don’t. But if I had money in the stockmarket, I would be getting it out, regardless of the country I am in. Yes, the DOW made new highs this year, but the Aussie market has not got within a 1,000 points of its 2007 high. The buy and hold model only works when there is a rising market, which there has been in the living memory of most of today’s investors.

We need to study history if we are to avoid repeating it. Be careful, my friends.

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